We live in a world of constant technology change. But something feels different about AI. Something seems to have changed for all of us. And it seems to have changed suddenly.
But has it? Is AI really different than say crypto, or self-driving cars, or other technology developments that haven’t lived up to their hype?
Yes, something is different about AI. In fact many things are different. So this week let’s start with what is perhaps the most provocative difference of all.
Throughout history, most technologies have initially been available only to the very wealthy, and then over time gradually became more affordable. This was the trajectory of electricity, cars, televisions, air travel, the personal computer, the internet, and countless other innovations. They began as luxury products for the elite, and then over decades became common products for the masses.
But AI is following the exact opposite trajectory. ChatGPT is the most powerful large language model (LLM) ever created. It has been trained on over 1 trillion parameters. And its version 3.5 is utterly free to anyone with an internet connection. Its most advanced model, ChatGPT 4.0, costs just $20 per month. Hundreds of millions of people around the world are already using AI in some form–to choose their music, to shop, to write, and in countless other ways, whether they know it or not. And this explosion started in about the fall of 2022.
That’s weird, right? What on earth just happened? Or maybe the more appropriate question is what is happening? Many things for sure. But three things stand out that have sent AI on this bizarre, unprecedented path.
Open-Source AI Frameworks
Initiatives like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, TensorFlow, PyTorch, and others have provided the most powerful AI tools for free. These frameworks enable anyone with a computer and an internet connection to experiment with, develop, and deploy AI models. Why have these companies pursued this path instead of the traditional route of gating these technologies to their highest paying customers? That’s a long conversation for another day. And we’re not suggesting that these companies are acting purely altruistically. But the fact is that open-source is the framework that has prevailed for now. And this has sparked a big bang in innovation comprised of countless startups, individuals, and organizations of all sizes applying AI immediately in a dizzying array of applications.
Cloud Computing
Platforms such as Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure offer pay-as-you-go access to high-performance computing resources. This model allows startups, researchers, and hobbyists to leverage significant computational power without the massive upfront investments in hardware that would otherwise be required to run AI. Microsoft Azure’s massive cloud infrastructure makes it possible to run ChatGPT on virtually any smartphone or computer. This is an example of how cloud computing has effectively democratized AI supercomputers to virtually everyone.
The Pandemic
Yes, you read that right. In the early months of the pandemic, cloud computing companies saw record profits as people flocked to their services to power virtual work and life. Flush with cash, these companies plowed billions into AI development, which dramatically accelerated innovation. To be sure, AI didn’t start in 2022. Siri launched in 2011 and hasn’t revolutionized much beyond setting kitchen timers. But by 2020, AI was on the precipice of major breakthroughs, and the massive COVID cash investments helped push AI past the tipping point.
AI’s Strange Trajectory
But here’s the ironic part of AI’s strange trajectory. AI is available to virtually everyone now. But as the computational power required to run its countless applications spirals into the stratosphere, who will own the supercomputers that power these tools? Estimates are that a single GPT 6 or 7 supercomputer could cost on the order of $100 billion dollars. And the energy needs required to run today’s AI tools are already straining the power grid. Without regulatory intervention, the actual ownership of AI may be the domain of only the very largest companies in the world, governments of major nations, and multinational organizations.
In other words, AI seems to be following the exact opposite path of other technologies–available to everyone immediately–owned by only the few in the long run.
So if you feel dizzy or disoriented by AI, we’d suggest that you’re not ill. AI’s pace of change is unlike anything we have ever seen. In the past, we’ve had decades to adapt to new technologies. But this incredibly powerful technology is now available to all, and that happened basically over just a few months.
Maybe the best analogy, although certainly imperfect, is comparing AI with the internet, in the sense that like the internet, AI envelopes virtually everything. But now imagine that it’s the late 1990s and instead of you dialing into AOL for the first time, or logging into your first DOS email account, that someone instead handed you your current smartphone with all of its apps, and that this was your first exposure to the internet.
What would you think? Dream? Nightmare? Scotch? Feel that way now a little? There’s nothing artificial about that feeling. In fact it’s probably the only intelligent reaction.
So here we are–in this wacky new world that came at us with little warning–and not for nothing while we were a bit distracted with things like a global pandemic. The only certainty in this environment is that learning is the only way to navigate forward.
We’ll do our small part to help in this newsletter, unpacking how AI and other technology changes are transforming political advocacy and campaigns, and how you can make the most of these changes in your work. We’ll give you tools to help navigate these changes. Except for the Scotch. But bring that yourself.
3 Suggestions To Operationalize This Email
🔱 Ask ChatGPT how AI is currently being used in a few of your existing software tools or apps.
🔱 Consider how you can use AI in your campaigns or policy advocacy this year.
🔱 Think about a current roadblock in your organization and how AI might help.
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