🔱  Sign up for a free demo today to see how the latest AI and digital advocacy tools can transform your work.

2.5 Minute Read

Pandora's Box Just Opened

Last Friday, OpenAI made major news by announcing that it will soon start testing advertising within ChatGPT. Careful readers will note that this newsletter has been predicting this development for some time. (Although to be fair, we also predicted that the Springsteen movie would win Best Musical at The Golden Globes and we're being told that it's . . . not a musical?!!).

In today's short read, we unpack what ChatGPT advertising means for political advocacy, and why confusion on this topic is reigning already. 

OpenAI's illustration of first generation ChatGPT advertising:

Why OpenAI Needs Your Ad Dollars

Let's start with why OpenAI is opening the Pandora's box of digital advertising: the company is hemorrhaging money. Some estimates put their losses at $8.5 billion in 2025 alone, and this is before OpenAI has built a single megawatt of energy that it will need to sustain its growth. In case you're wondering, your ChatGPT subscription revenue does not cover these losses. Minor subscription fees are not enough to sustain the massive computational, energy, staff, and other overhead demands of building advanced AI. Instead, OpenAI has been subsidizing ChatGPT to reach a critical mass of users, and then turn on the cash printing press through advertising. On Friday, that's exactly what they did.

Here's What OpenAI Actually Said About Political Advertising

If you've read any of the commentary about this announcement, you've probably heard that OpenAI won't allow ads in the politics or health categories. That is NOT what OpenAI said. 

Here's what OpenAI's statement actually says:

"During our test, we will not show ads in accounts where the user tells us or we predict that they are under 18, and ads are not eligible to appear near sensitive or regulated topics like health, mental health or politics."

Emphasis added.

Along with health, political advertising is simply not currently part of OpenAI's advertising test. OpenAI recently revealed that over 230 million people globally ask health and wellness-related questions on ChatGPT every week. Does anyone seriously think the company will ignore that market for pharmaceutical companies, health insurers, and wellness brands, who are all salivating at the prospect of reaching that enormous audience? And if you don't think that, why would you expect them to ignore the $17 billion political ad market?

Sponsored Chats Are Coming. And They're Going to Be Weird.

As we also predicted, advertising on ChatGPT will likely soon include sponsored chats. (Ok, ok, our arm is broken now from patting ourselves on our back. We'll stop!)

Here's the illustration OpenAI gave:

Look at that example closely. Do you think most people will keep track of whether they're talking to ChatGPT or a sponsored chat? Or if they do, do you think they'll even care?

What This Means For Political Advocacy

No one knows exactly what the future of LLM advertising will be, but here's a few safe assumptions:

🔱  Public affairs ads will face fewer restrictions than voter ads. This has long been true across digital platforms. In fact some public affairs ads may already be allowed in ChatGPT. For instance, could a company with an issue before Congress run a positive brand ad targeted to decision-makers and influencers that does not include a specific legislative call to action? 

We'll find out in the coming weeks.

🔱  Other LLMs will follow suit and allow advertising, each with their own rules and nuances on political advertising. Bet on this in Vegas if you have the chance.

🔱  Early adopters of LLM advertising will gain a structural advantage over organizations that "wait to see how this plays out."

Two Ways To Operationalize This Email

🔱 Don't wait to see what happens in LLM advertising. It IS happening. Dig into this now, and understand the nuances of what types of ads you might already be allowed to run.

🔱 Develop a contingency plan for this year. If mass LLM advertising comes to public affairs and campaigns, how will you keep up? If that seems far-fetched, remember that the above already happened in week 2 of January. Here's our other predictions for the year to keep us honest and see what else might be coming.

🔱 If you're enjoying this content, please consider forwarding this email to a colleague or friend. 

🔱 If you're not already a subscriber, please sign up here to stay up to date on the latest developments in political technology.

🔱 If you have suggestions for future newsletters or any other feedback, we'd love to hear from you.