Incorrect addresses in the voter file are a systemic problem plaguing nearly every campaign. Depending on the geographic location, 40-60% of physical addresses in the voter file are simply wrong. Supplementing this bad data can make or break any race. In this newsletter we show you the scope of the problem, and where to find data with the correct information.
The Scale of The Lies
Numerous studies have shown that voter files systematically list addresses wrong for tens of millions of people across the country. The problem is particularly acute among Black, Latino, and young voters—all crucial voting groups in this year's election. The common element in these demographics is that they typically move more, and anytime you move, it's a chance for election officials to lose you in their records.
Try this as a quick thought experiment. Think about the last time you moved and imagine your to-do list. Now ask yourself where on that list was contacting election officials to tell them your new address. Was it anywhere? And now consider the fact that if you're reading this newsletter, you're a political nerd by definition (we mean that as mostly a good thing). So do you think the average, less nerdy voter ever even considers updating their voter address? For most people there's a huge lag in updating their voter registration address after a move, if it ever happens at all. In fact in one recent study, 40% of Black and Latino voters were incorrectly listed in the voter file.
But those numbers are just an average. Depending on the state and the district, the problem is often much worse. We've run tests on this issue, comparing voter file addresses to GPS location data from mobile phones. When there's a conflict, we trust the phone data, because most people are never more than a few feet away from their phone. Here's what the data showed us in one major race in California:
Over half of the voters were listed at the wrong address. Other than by hoping that the opposition is just as lost, how can you expect to win a race where you don't even know where half of your targets are?
When it comes to bad voter file data, there's always been a bit of a whistling past the graveyard issue. Some political professionals are very aware of the flaws, but feel reliant on the voter file, and therefore helpless to fix it. Others don't seem to be aware of the issue at all. We recently spoke with a prominent legislative leader who regularly knocks on doors in her district. She thought these statistics might even be understated because she sees it with her own eyes—her voters simply are not where they're supposed to be.
Where To Find The Truth
The good news is that truthful data exists. Your local election officials may not always know where you live, but you know who does? People who you owe money to—they're REALLY good at knowing where you live. So your credit card company knows where you are. Your car loan company knows where you are. Student loan companies know where young voters are. And guess what? These creditors sell this data. It's one of the many reasons we've long preached the benefits of relying on commercial data over voter file data whenever possible.
Depending on the specifics of the race, there are several tools that can go a long way to supplementing the lying voter file data with the correct voter information. We've covered several of these tools in the linked newsletters below. They include:
It's crunch time friends. We're all looking for an edge to win our races. This issue is more than an edge—it's a cliff. And you have to decide which side of that cliff you want to be on.
Here's three suggestions on how to operationalize this email:
🔱 Check the key audiences in your races. Ask yourself who is most vulnerable to being incorrectly listed in the voter file.
🔱 Resist the temptation to throw up your hands and "spray and pray" with your ads. That's not a strategy—it's giving up.
🔱 Supplement the lying voter file data with a combination of commercial data, GPS location data, cookieless identifiers, and AI-based contextual targeting.
The truth is that this could be the difference between winning and losing.
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