2.5 Minute Read

The Science Behind the Strategy

British anthropologist Robin Dunbar's groundbreaking research in the 1990s revealed what every one of us intuitively knows—our brains have cognitive limits. Through studying primate brain structures and human social networks, Dunbar discovered that we can maintain about 150 meaningful relationships, and only about 15 of those people genuinely influence our decisions. This is why every president has had their "kitchen cabinet." What may sound like political theory is actually neuroscience. Our prefrontal cortexes literally have bandwidth limits for deep relationships.

But here's where most campaigns go wrong: they waste countless resources targeting thousands of people because that's what their legacy vendors have sold them on. This means treating the Chief of Staff the same as a think tank analyst across town. Which of course makes zero sense. 

The real world consequences of this approach for your budget are jarring. If you're spending $50,000 to reach 5,000 "influencers" you're spending $10 on  each target. But focus on the closest 15 influencers with that same budget? You can deliver 333x more messages to the people with real influence.

Distinguish Between Influencers and Insiders

There are times when it makes sense to target a broader group of people. Sometimes you need to change the overall perception of an issue, rebrand an organization's reputation, or drive a broad conversation on a policy topic.

These are all worthy advocacy goals, and examples of times when it makes sense to have an audience in the thousands. But let's be clear about who these people are—they are not influencers, they are insiders. That think tank analyst, that junior lobbyist, that Twitter pundit? Maybe they're part of the political conversation, but they're not in the ear of your decision-maker. Real influencers are the spouse who talks policy over breakfast, the chief of staff who filters every meeting, the longtime advisor who gets the late-night phone calls.

Your advocacy should make that distinction, and allocate your budget among the two groups accordingly. Influencers should get the highest frequency in your messaging. Insiders should get the amount of your budget you can afford.

How To Identify The Actual Influencers

All of this begs the question—how do you identify the actual influencers of your decision-maker? The short answer is that modern AI tools make this more possible than ever. The longer answer is that we've now ventured to the shores of the next generation of influencer targeting tools. These tools are built on the most powerful large language models in the world. They reveal connections to your decision-maker that even the largest Potemkin army of interns could never find. And they are about to fundamentally change how influencer targeting works in public affairs.

One Way To Operationalize This Email

🔱  For the readers of this newsletter, we're offering a sneak peek at a demo of what this very near term future will look like. Please sign up here and include your colleagues or friends. You'll peer just a bit into the future, and see how public affairs is about to be jolted by the latest in AI.

🔱 If you're enjoying this content, please consider forwarding this email to a colleague or friend.

🔱 If you're not already a subscriber, please sign up here to stay up to date on the latest developments in political technology.

🔱 If you have suggestions for future newsletters or any other feedback, we'd love to hear from you.